Newminimalists embrace the arrival of a new world order.
Just watched a Hoover Institution [Stanford University, CA] policy discussion with Victor Davis Hanson on the world we are heading into right now. Victor is a contemporary intellectual who is always worth listening to on any topic. So I was more than attentive when he suggested that the US will experience an economic boom once coronavirus restrictions are lifted. I respect that view of how the future will unfold; but, it rings hollow to me. I guess I hope that Victor is correct but I simply can not see any way that he can be right.
The world ahead has a lot of built-in features that are already apparent and clearly pose real challenges for all of us. So. I plan to compile a series of notes for myself on some of those future challenges and in the process share them with you.
First. Cashflow will become more important than a secure job in the future. By the way there will likely be very few secure jobs in the future [even in the public sector and academia]. The future challenge is to learn about how cashflow, or the lack of it, affects you and your life. Indeed your livelihood in a networked world will be based on your ability to generate unencumbered cashflow. And. The good news is that you, and your peers, are about to encounter an amazing array of opportunities to create new sources of cashflow.
Second. Talent will work with their peers on new ventures. These ventures will be designed as networks not organisations. These networks will devolve critical decision-making to those working on the issue at the source. These networks will expand as "cashflow" enables rather than seek debt funding to scale activities. These networks will likely remain debt free even when they scale to global reach.
Third. The new workplace is where AI automation is a dominant feature. People will be present if, and only if, there is work to do that demands human capabilities.
Fourth. A universal payment system will evolve in nations that are prepared to cutback the size of central governments. Given that recipients of these payments are likely to treat this new form of "cashflow" as a bonus and so they will tend to save it. This change of individual habits will be important because a population that has substantial savings is so different to one that has mountains of debt. But. This "cashflow" bonus must come from the savings made as a nation reduces the waste and speculative spending by its central government.
Fifth. A universal healthcare system will tend to the sick. Perhaps elective services will be handled by a private system that relies upon insurance payments. Thus this would be a dual healthcare system that is focused on different human illness or impairment issues. Dental and other services could be provided as part of the private or the public system.
Sixth. The central banks around the world are expanding money supply in concert with an expansion of fiscal spending programs by their national governments. This public policy action is being encouraged by those who promote Modern Monetary Theory [central governments do not need taxes or borrowings to dramatically increase spending] to create a new type of Central Government that is in charge of the entire economy. Under this economic model the Green New Deal can become a practical reality not just a public policy idea. Furthermore the current shutdown of the global economy shows us what a New Green Deal world may look like. Of course there will be innovative programs for urban renewal and that is not present during this shutdown. The Green New Deal will be financed under a MMT expansion of Central Government spending and sustained by unprecedented restrictions of individual rights including a shutdown of free speech and a demonstrable lack of diversity of thinking, habits, and beliefs.
Seventh. We are headed into a 1970s type of world with Stagflation [high levels of unemployment with high levels of inflation] which was a huge drag on the efficiency of a national economy. There will be inexplicable shortages of goods and services and the cost of basic staples will rise and rise and rise. Getting contractors to meet their obligations may prove to be impossible because by the time they have completed most of the work on your new house, or a new IT system for your company, they will go into voluntary bankruptcy because they have over-extended themselves. This happens in part because the cost of labour, manufactured goods, etc rises month by month by month and it is impossible to meet the requirements of a fixed-price contract unless it can be done super quickly. It can not usually be done super quickly because there are many unscheduled delays experienced in all the supply chains [sometime because supplies go to the highest bidder not the first in line to receive them].
There is more to say but that is a good start.
Richard
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