Perhaps the greatest issue facing the world today is the absence of requisite variety [see photo]. Ashby's Law tells us that any presence of variety must be match by requisite variety or chaos will ensue. This is the first law of cybernetics. And it relates to all modern systems both open and closed.
Regulated systems have three stages: inputs, throughputs, and outputs. Problems arise within these systems when the inputs are not as expected, the conversion of throughput becomes unreliable, and the nominal outputs become less than predictable.
In 2019-20 when the covid-19 virus joined the nominal inputs into our economic and social systems we experienced a massive boost of variety. If we apply Ashy's type of thinking to the issue then we will endeavour to match this new variety with the requisite variety [traffic lights at a congested intersection is a simple example] to ensure a smooth conversion process and establish a predictable set of outputs. However... If our open system - with all its feedback loops from the environment - can not provide this requisite variety then chaos will ensue. Thereafter the regulator of any such open system will shut it down. More precisely this system will be in a lockdown mode of operation unless, or until, inputs of the requisite variety can again establish a sense of dynamic equilibrium.
Because the 2021 global system lacks the requisite variety to match the variety introduced by the covid-19 virus most regulators have imposed lockdowns. We had expected that vaccines would provide the type of requisite variety [remember the traffic lights and the congested intersection] needed to allow a new version of our open system to become fully operative. But the vaccine did not provide the requisite variety needed to ensure that our new open system would not also trend towards chaos. Therefore we can expect to be in lockdown mode for an indefinite period.
Richard.
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