Recently some of my most trusted commentators on world affairs have been found wanting. They are human like the rest of us and therefore their analysis lacks real credibility because they lack accurate information [fog of war], they have been overcome by the emotion-led opinions of the day, and they can not longer remain beyond the reach of the emotional crowd. Thus these rational souls have become captives of the emotional propaganda being pumped out by the media, governments, and corporations. The baseline lie that has lodged inside these once rational minds seem to accept that Ukraine can win this war. .
Here I focus on the Ukraine War and three critical impacts from that conflict which will likely affect all of us.
First... the ground war will reset the current notion of a nation state and the importance of sovereign boundaries. Nation state boundaries will be reimposed and reinforced by the use of guns and economic power. The adjunct to this ground war is the flood of Ukraine refugees that are currently flooding into Europe [and beyond]. Dispossessed people become tribal nomads and when they become large in numbers then it is a challenge for governments, economies, and social regimes.
Second... the sanctions imposed on the Russian Central Bank tolls the bell for a new global economic order. Russia is for all intent and purpose has become a closed economy. Russia has the support of China [to some extent] to ensure that people there are not totally isolated. The impact of this change to the global financial system is hard to assess [at present] however this move could be as historic as the Bretton Woods Agreement in the mid-1940s. That pegged exchange rates to the $US which lasted until the mid-1970s when high rates of inflation led the free floating system of exchange rates. What will emerge now that a major world economy has been excluded from the G7 Club? In the short-term we can expect high inflation rates and shortages of goods and services.
Third... the mind war is in full swing. The mind games being played by weak leaders in the West [EU, London, Washington DC, Berlin, Paris, Canberra, Ottawa, etc] has created a narrative that says: PUTIN BAD and ZELENSKY GOOD. Once you accept that mindset you will soon get lost in waves of emotional confusion. Your rational mind will fail. Your logical mind will become confused. Your ability to process information is always limited if you have a destructive mental overlay supporting your confirmation bias. Once your confirmation bias is tightly aligned to that of the emotional mob you will see a Purple Cow here, over there, and everywhere. A clear-and-present antidote to your emotional mind comes when you separate "wants" from "needs". I do that daily as a minimalist.
Richard.
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