Aviation gives us pause to consider a future that is much more predictable than the experts suggest it will be. One thing is certain: aviation will bounce back. It will bounce back with changes to business models, routes, aircraft usage, flight hubs, and networks of airline brands that can get you from here to there.
The first step is to restructure the business model for aviation. Separate domestic and international routes as business models for the future. Some aviation brands fly international routes exclusively and that model may not be sustainable into the longer term future. The major change required is to purchase smaller more nimble aircraft. These will be used to fly from hub to hub not nation to nation. For example, Qantas can fly from Sydney to Singapore, Melbourne to Los Angeles, Brisbane to Tokyo, etc. This would transform the brand to a regional airline not one with global reach.
The internal configurations of aircraft will change from three space allocations [First, Business, Economy] into one. On international routes there will be one class [the old business class configuration]. There will be meeting spaces onboard. There will be more amenities for passengers; but, there will be fewer services delivered by staff as self-service features become the mainstay of the future passenger experience. Cabin luggage will be limited to computers, personal equipment, and the like. All the little service charges will be consolidated into higher ticket prices. This means cheap international flights will be run by charter operations not by brand airlines. Which means that international travel will be a luxury good as it was when it first began back in the middle of the C20th. Free flights will fade away as the give aways that exist inside the current business model are discontinued. The focus of this business model will be quality not quantity. This will be the case at the airport too. Unique experiences will be the norm at international hubs as the services provided inside the airport are no longer the standard fare [Starbucks, MacDonalds, etc]. And so on and so on.....
The domestic configuration of aircraft will ensure that more space for travellers is the norm. One class travel is almost certain to emerge as the low-cost model for air travel disappears. The backpacker and holiday travellers will travel on buses and other road-based vehicles not aircrafts. The volume of travel will remain high; but, the cost of tickets will rise dramatically. Incidentally, the profit returns on each ticket may be greater than ever before once the domestic aviation industry shifts its focus from bulk ticketing and onto a high-priced service that is tightly tailored to best fit the new domestic travel demand curve. Domestic terminals will be less like a shopping mall [as they have been in the past] and more like an exclusive club for travellers and their guests. Or something like this.....
That could all proved to be wrong. But one thing is certain: the aviation industry will be at the leading edge of changes that are coming to reshape the ways we all live, survive, and thrive.
Richard.
Minimalist will survive and thrive in this changing world and therefore it may be time to consider this way of life. For more about minimalism please go to the homepage of my website at minimal-you.com
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