Paul Keating is a former Prime Minister of Australia who was a regular presence at The National Press Gallery to paint a broad picture of the future. However he has not done that for the past 26 years; well that is until this week. Paul showed up to have his say about the future of Australia in a world of multiple threats and opportunities. And, as usual, Paul was controversial as he presented his views on the pressing question of our times "is China a friend or a foe?"[see photo].
As is usual with Paul he tied the assembled members of the Press Gallery in knots because he did not argue the case that China is either a friend or a foe. He argued that China is probably both at the same time. China is a friend because a 1.4 Billion population has raised itself from abject poverty to a GNP per person of $US10, 000 [compared to $US60,000 per person for around 330 million population in the USA]. Paul makes the case that when China doubles that GNP per person wealth from $US10,000 to $US20,000 then the size of their economy will become the biggest in the world, much bigger than the US, and much bigger than the EU. He makes the critical point that China is a foe when it seeks to export the tools of totalitarian rule such as their Social Credit System which the CCP uses to spy on its citizens for every hour of every day.
Of course the instant that Paul stopped speaking he was under attack from members of his own party [Labor] and the incumbent government members [Liberal National Party] because both support the purchase of UK/US nuclear submarines. Keating's point is that these subs are offensive weapons that can only truly be made fully operational within a larger force provided by the US Navy. He makes the further point that these are naval assets that are designed to attack a distant enemy not to defend Australia. He also cautions that by the time Australia has operational nuclear submarines [2030-2040] these weapons will be obsolete. He then outlines the alternatives that Australia can take as a defensive measure at sea and he suggests that the options are many and varied. At the extreme he mentions that Australia could enter into a contract with France [a difficult diplomatic exercise at present] to purchase their state-of-the-art nuclear subs in the future.
Paul, as is his want, painted on a large canvass as he spoke about the role of India and China in the future of the world. He notes that India is embraced by the West while China is being shunned. He notes that China is denounced for the treatment of the Muslims within its borders while nothing much is said about India on the same or similar issues. Paul Keating recommends that China be embraced as a massive presence in Asia because that is what it is and to deny that fact is to create a global problem not just a long-term issue for Australia and its neighbours. Keating's point is that China is so large that it can not be kept out of the global treaties and diplomatic arrangements that apply to the rest of the world. In stating this and related views, Paul is seen as an apologist for China [read the CCP]. Is he? [you decide]. For instance, he talks about "the belt-and-road initiative" as an outreach by China of its modern infrastructure as it proceeds to upgrade its economy from a low-tech to a high-tech entity. The key issue here is surely the ability of a modernising China to breakthrough into a high-technology economy without causing an incident that leads to a significant global conflict [war between China and America over Taiwan]. And so on and so on...
Paul Keating is an engaging, and often colourful, speaker who leaves no one in doubt as to who he thinks is "useful" [on the global diplomatic scene] and who is "a useful idiot" [he refers to Boris Johnson as "coconut head"] as we tumble headlong into a uncertain future.
For those of you who are interested; please go see Paul Keating as he lays down an alternative world view to those you can see and hear [24/7] around the traps.
Richard.
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