Life as a policy advisor to a Prime Minister [and his Government] is one lived in the shadows [see photo]. Every moment of everyday the spotlight shifts from here to over there. But good public policy will always set the framework for action in all the circumstances we face. The recurring question for a policy analyst goes something like this: "is this new issue inside or outside the reach of current [or anticipated] public policy settings". My life for several years was totally consumed with that type of question and it required a commitment of 80 to 110 hours per week. It is not a healthy way to live.
When a generalist [me] is drawn into a meeting to discuss the preparations for WAR the tension headache stretches from the base of the neck to the forehead. The levels of personal stress are elevated because as an outsider [me] one tends to question the whole policy framework not just the individual elements of it. For example... I always questioned the efficacy and efficiency of economic and political sanctions on an adversary. I argued that most of these measures were counterproductive to most otherwise rational policy settings. Such public policy initiatives tend to drag the analyst's focus away from the real issues. Also these types of settings tend to lock-out any reasonable consideration of the unintended consequences of all current and future policy. For example... During the Vietnam War the American military actions on the battlefields were always inept because the Vietcong was a self-organising army. The Vietcong used paddy field-based information networks as a trigger to change strategy and tactics in an instant. As a general principle the Vietcong consistently changed their decision-making processes to better align them to the needs of those fighting in the jungles of Vietnam. Meanwhile the US continued to bomb everything in site, to gain ground by day and cede it back overnight, and it was late in the conflict that they used dogs to clear the tunnels that enabled the Vietcong to advance and withdraw as an invisible army.
My point in submitting this blah, blah, blah, blah for your consideration is that any and all WARS arise due to a failure of public policy settings. When hubris is sprinkled all over the public policy settings of a nation then the elected administration sits on the brink of WAR with an enemy both inside and outside their borders. The hubris in the West is as high as I have ever seen and this is because rational policy analysis is being drowned out by an inept set of ideological narratives.
We live in dangerous times. And the people who are in control of governments seem blind to the intended, and the unintended, consequences of inadequate public policy settings. So... How can this problem be fixed? There is no quick fix! But... If governments can hire people who come with an "outsider's perspective" then eventually the public policy making process can find a new level of dynamic homeostasis.
Richard.
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