Inflation is evident all around the globe right now. Yesterday I had to pay 10% more for a meal I have bought often over the past two years. I was not surprised because everything is going up by exactly 10% right now. I expect inflation at these, and perhaps, slightly higher levels to be present in my life for the rest of 2022. However... by the middle of 2023 I expect inflation to have receded and deflation to have become real for me and you [see photo].
Why is deflation coming? Lack of demand is the primary reason. This is a direct result of the lock-downs over the past 2-3 years which led consumers to change their spending [saving] patterns. Shortages due to disruptions in the global supply chain has also led to new consumption patterns. In addition, in these inflation fed times consumers will buy assets that offer them a genuine store of value [bitcoin, gold, collectables, etc]. Acting directly against a trend of higher and higher levels of inflation is the hidden factor of aging populations.
Aging populations around the globe [China, Germany, etc] is the primary reason that deflation seems inevitable. Older consumers need fewer goods and services from the private sector and more from the public sector [healthcare, aged homes, etc]. This shift in spending patterns will devalue private sector assets and increase the demand for tax funded services. Add to this the fact that woke generations seek a move from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy. This move will increase the cost of energy and in the process will reduce the spending power of all consumers. The obvious short-term issue with renewable sources of energy is the base-load problems [supply of energy to meet peaks in demand] and this mismatch in demand and supply could lead to more expensive electricity at the same time that there are more and more blackouts [shortfalls in supply].
Young women play a major role in the return of deflation. The trend seems that young women will increasingly delay, or seek to totally avoid, having babies. If women refuse to give birth to kids then the consumption on all manner of goods and services that are foundational to most national economies will be subdued. Spending on kids from birth to College graduation is substantial and highly predictable. If young females no longer seek partners, to marry, or to have their own or adopted kids then the traditional spending, saving, and investment patterns in the economy will move onto new pathways.
Inflation now, and deflation later, is perhaps a given in the event of aging populations, expensive energy, reduced fecundity of young women, asset bubble implosions, etc. Those who prepare for deflation, while they endure inflation, will be on a solid pathway into the short-term future.
Richard.
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