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Writer's pictureRichard Lipscombe

Boris and Trump will likely fail in 2020 ...

Updated: Dec 17, 2019


The world is about to be turned upside down

The chattering class like to present Boris and Trump as friends. It is assumed that these two leaders will get along famously - let's wait and see [ I doubt it but that is a guess]. There are similarities that may lead to "avoidable problems" for these two leaders in 2020 [see photo].


I apologise to you [my loyal reader] because I am about to express my opinions based on insights gleaned for a misspent youth in politics in my country of birth. I remember my Prime Minister changing public policy [on saving the whales] because his youngest daughter came home from school one day and accused him of being mean and cruel. Trump has his oldest daughter working in the White House and she is a 24/7 influence on him on "paid leave", "assistance for childcare", and "workplace innovation". These were minor items in the policy platform for Trump in 2016 and yet they have been done or are progressing well. However The Wall has not been done [and not likely to get done] even though it was the core message in the Trump 2016 narrative. Meanwhile, Boris has been urged by his current partner to be far more aggressive with his deliberations on "carbon-based" economics. His commitments to a "carbon neutral economy" may be good politics but will it be good public policy?


Boris is a practiced politician who is keen to lead by devolving responsibility to the team around him. This is a perfect strategy if, and only if, the team is full of competence, rational mindsets, politically adept actors, public policy savvy advisors, people with a cutting-edge narrative on Brexit, and members who are prepared to challenge the wisdom of most public servant's advice. Trump has failed on all these measures and that is why he has been such a huge disappointment to his "rusted-on" supporters. There is no Wall. There is no sign that the Swamp in Washington DC has really been stirred let alone is being drained. There is no sign of a rational immigration policy for a post-2020 America. There is no sign of renewal of US infrastructure. There is no sign that the US Reserve Bank's power has diminished. And there is no sign that "America is great again!".


Boris is burdened by his huge majority in Parliament. There will be lots of "idle hands" wandering around the halls of power who will "stir the pot" and create issues for the Johnson-led government that the press will make much of. Boris will face the same problems that have beset Trump for past 3 years if he does not deliver Brexit [a complete withdraw from the EU] and he will not do that unless he has a great team around him in No10.


The "seeds of failure" for Boris are evident in his first address to the nation where he spoke about "one nation". Either he was lying to the country or he is on a course to replicate the failures of Trump as he becomes captive to the London elites, Westminster public servants, and a "one nation" narrative that is continually contested by Scotland, Northern Island, BBC, etc. Boris [in my humble opinion] must focus on Brexit for the next 5 years because it is the equivalent of Trump's Wall. If Boris carelessly dabbles on issues surrounding NHS, a carbon-neutral economy, and the city of London [which shall begin to implode post a real Brexit] he will be in trouble by the middle of 2020.


Boris will be a failure, just like Trump, if he strays from the narrative he was elected on. This will happen if he can not hire "disciplined teams" who willingly work 24/7 on Brexit.


Richard


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Richard Lipscombe
Richard Lipscombe
Dec 16, 2019

Hi there.... If one compares Boris with Trump there are great lessons to learn about what is needed to lead in a post-2020 business, social, and governance world. If you want to understand what a leader really care about look at the talent he or she has assembled in that area of business or governance. Trump has a super talent on trade negotiations and business regulation - this is where he has excelled. But the talent he needed to build The Wall is not evident. Boris must now prove to his supporters that he can "get Brexit done!" Cheers, Richard.

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